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There's gold in them thar hills. Or is there? Texas Rep. Ron Paul, suggesting America's reserves may not be as robust as officials claim, is calling for an independent audit of the U.S. gold held at Fort Knox and other facilities. The Republican congressman known for his fierce opposition to virtually everything the Federal Reserve does says the public deserves to know what's behind the fortified walls of America's gold vaults -- particularly in case gold is ever reintroduced as a basis for U.S. currency. "It'd be nice for the American people to know whether or not the gold is there," Paul told Fox Business Network. And if it is all there, he said, the public should know whether any of it has been obligated. A spokeswoman told FoxNews.com the congressman wants to introduce the bill in September when Congress returns from recess. Fort Knox claims billions of dollars worth of gold are stored away in its secret vault. The Fort Knox facility, a hyper-secure fortress in Kentucky that is part of quintessential American lore, is encased in 750 tons of reinforced steel, as well as thousands of cubic feet of concrete and granite. No visitors are allowed. Though Paul no doubt wants a more thorough inspection, the U.S. Mint is subjected to regular audits, including at Fort Knox. The Mint claims gold is removed in "very small quantities" for this purpose alone, and that no other gold has been transferred in or out of the facility for a long time. The latest audit, conducted by KPMG, did not appear to detail U.S. gold holdings -- dealing more with gold and silver sales, coin circulation, workplace environment and other issues -- but did state that gold and silver continue to be held at Fort Knox. Scrutinizing U.S. monetary policy, though, is nothing new for Paul. Last year, he pushed on Capitol Hill a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, an effort that ended with a Fed audit provision tucked inside the financialregulation package. Paul, in an interview last week with industry publication Kitco News, first outlined his next campaign. He said there is "reason to be suspicious" about U.S. gold holdings and suggested officials were manipulating the price of gold to prop up the perceived value of paper money. Paul said "it is a possibility" that neither Fort Knox nor the New York Federal Reserve vaults have any gold. He also said he will call for the U.S. government to legalize the use of gold and silver as "legal tender" alongside the U.S. dollar. Let them compete, he says. "If people get tired of using the paper standard, they can deal in gold or silver," he told Kitco News. Representatives from the Treasury Department and U.S. Mint did not respond to requests for comment on Paul's proposal. Gold and silver investmenthas drawn renewed attention amid concerns about the stability of the U.S. dollar. The United States moved away from the gold standard in the early 1970s, but Paul said it's good to know what the United States holds just in case. He warned the U.S. government is setting the stage for a depression by trying to print, spend and regulate its way out of the last recession. "Who knows, someday we might want to have a gold standardagain and quit all this printing-press money, so it would be nice to know how much we have," Paul said in the interview with Fox Business Network.
A few weeks ago, Hedgeye, the investment research firm where I'm a managing director, hosted a conference call for our subscribers that posed the question, "Should U.S. Government Debt Be Rated Junk Status?" Given that debt issued by the U.S. government continues to trade at almost all-time lows in yield, this is a contrarian call to say the least.But while investors are willing to accept little in the way of return to own U.S. government debt and the U.S. has retained its AAA credit rating, the metrics by which we use to evaluate the balance sheet of the United States continue to deteriorate.Typically, a bond receives junk status due to its increased risk of default, and therefore pays higher yields to the owners of the bonds to make up for the risk. In general, the owner of a bond is subject to many risks: interest rate risk, inflationary risks, currency risk, duration risk, and so forth. In this instance, as it relates to the United States, we are actually most concerned with the risk related to future repayment. Specifically, with projected deficits for at least the next fifty years, will the United States be able to repay its debt and, if so, on what terms?The most newsworthy nation to currently be rated junk status is Greece. The 5-year credit default swaps for Greece, which reflect the amount an investor is willing to pay for insurance against a potential default, are currently trading at 916 basis points(bps) which is substantially above the levels of the United States. In fact, credit default swaps for the American government 5-year bonds are trading at 49bps which reflect the AAA bond rating status of the United States.In contrast to the price of both yields and credit default swaps, the key ratios from which we use to analyze a nation appear very similar between the United States and Greece, despite their divergent credit ratings. Specifically, the key ratios are: debt as percentage of GDP, deficit as a percentage of GDP, and debt as a percentage of revenue. We've outlined a comparative analysis between a typical junk-rated sovereign issues, in this case Greece, and the United States.The key ratios: Greece vs. United StatesDeficit as % of GDP * US: 10.4% * Greece: 13.6%Debt as % of GDP * US: 86.5% (including GSE debt: 121.6%) * Greece: 115.1%Debt as % of revenue * US: 358.1% * Greece: 312.2%Sources: Hedgeye, Morgan Stanley and CBO. 2009On two of the ratios, the United States appears to do better than Greece, which is certainly a positive, but if we include the debt of government sponsored entities, or GSEs, the United States actually has a worse ratio than Greece.0:00 /3:21European stress tests: 'A charade'?It is also important though to consider the future when contemplating the pricing and rating of a nation's debt. Specifically, is it expected that the nation will be running future deficits, which require incremental debt funding? If so, our policymakers may have to implement policies designed to narrow this funding gap, typically known as austerity measures.And the outlook of the United States is distressed to say the least. The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. budget out until 2035 under two scenarios. In both scenarios, the U.S. government will run a deficit through the projection period and require increased debt to fund the deficit. In the more aggressive scenario, in terms of larger deficits, debt as percentage of GDP nears 200% by the end of the projection period. Hedgeye actually believes that even the more aggressive scenario could understate future deficits.Why it could be worse than the CBO thinksThe year-to-date budget numbers that we recently released for July highlight the primary driver of this deficit: spending. The July results from the U.S. Treasury Department indicate that the United States has been running a deficit for 22 straight months. When normalizing for TARP, which we consider a 1-time expenditure, spending for the first 10 months of the government's fiscal year is up an astonishing 10.4%.Despite this, the U.S. government has not taken any aggressive austerity measures to attempt to narrow the current and projected deficits. In contrast, most European nations have taken aggressive actions on both the revenue -- increasing taxes -- and cost sides -- reducing government expenditures -- to get their fiscal houses in order.For example in Greece the government is implementing a reduction in public spending of $30 billion euros, an increase in the age when pensions are distributed from 60 to 65, an increase in the VAT tax from 21% to 23%, and a stated deficit reduction target.The result of the actions in Europe are that, in theory, future deficits should shrink and debt balances eventually decline. In contrast, under our current course, U.S. deficits will expand for decades.So, should U.S. government debt be downgraded to junk status? If we simply look at the ratios and the future outlook, the answer is quite obvious. To top of page